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| A slalom awaits Obama's second term Posted: 08 Nov 2012 07:37 AM PST So, Barack Obama gets into his second term as US president. Iran was quick to absorb it by saying it would be good for the the country, hoping US will see the logic in its 'nuclear-for-power' program while Israel was a bit skeptical over Washington's dealing with Teheran. However, Obama is 'accepted' well worldwide. Even the Cubans see him as a moderate 'leader of the imperialist' while in Teheran, some joys were observed when he was announced winner against Mitt Romney.  Obama's re-election victory represents an important vindication of his approach to Iran and its potential nuclear ambitions – and, for the world, a new face of American policy in the Middle East that will relegate the aggressive policies of George W. Bush into the distant past. For all of his well-worn criticisms of Obama's Iran policy as insufficiently bellicose and too reliant on diplomacy rather than military threats to bring Iran into line, Romney never really offered much of an alternative – beyond his insistence that he could create a better outcome by speaking in a louder voice, and the clear implication that he would be more willing to use force against Iran's nuclear facilities. His initial ambition to jump-start the faltering Israeli-Palestinian peace process floundered and with it his efforts to rebuild relations with the Muslim world. His Administration's attempted 'reset' with Russia, too, was essentially stillborn, while its 'pivot to Asia' has been more a feature of rhetoric than a measurable strategic shift. Rather than set the agenda, Obama has largely found himself forced to react to crises in the Middle East and the Afghanistan-Pakistan sphere, managing the challenges of extricating US troops from the Hindu Kush and relying on drone strikes to kill off the US enemies there and also in Yemen; averting the dangers posed by the standoff over Iran's nuclear program by building sanctions pressure on Teheran, and formulating a response to an Arab rebellion that swept aside longstanding US allies and empowered Islamists in their wake. His administration developed a form of limited military engagement that relied on others to undertake the heavy lifting - known by the ghastly term 'leading from behind' - to help bring down Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, although the killing of four US diplomatic personnel in Benghazi on Sept 11 highlights the fragility of the resulting order. More recently, the Obama White House has struggled to find similarly low-cost policy levers that could break Syria's bloody stalemate by ousting President Bashar Assad. A foreign-policy legacy may not seem the obvious pathway for Obama to pursue given the limits on American power within which he operates. And he's clearly mindful of the reality that any restoration of US global fortunes depends first and foremost on repairing the domestic economy. In Bali, Indonesia, Iran president Ahmadinejad who was attending the two-day Democracy Forum which also saw participation by Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Afghan President Hamid Karzai, criticised the situation in Europe and the US. "An election, which is one of the manifestations of the people's will, has become a battleground for the capitalists, and an excuse for hefty spending," he said. An estimated US$6 billion was spent in US federal races, making the 2012 general election the most expensive poll in American history, experts have said. Ahmadinejad, who did not comment directly on Obama's victory over his Republican rival Mitt Romney, added that "democracy has turned into the rule of a minority over the majority". He said problems continued "even in countries who claim to be the forerunners of democracy". "Slavery, colonialism and rights abuses continue to be imposed on human beings," he said, without singling out any countries in particular for criticism. Romney frequently accused Obama of taking too soft a line toward Teheran, saying Iran today has never been closer to a nuclear weapons capability, and that it has never acted less deterred by America. Now, the question is how much he has been stung by such criticism? Will Obama retain confidence in his dual strategy of squeezing Iran with economic sanctions while also extending offers of rapprochement? Or will the fact that Iran keeps building centrifuges and enriching uranium despite Obama's efforts persuade the White House it needs to try something new? Perhaps the greatest and most immediate foreign policy crisis Obama must confront in his second term is the civil war in Syria, which threatens to spill into neighboring states. The US need to make Syria a priority, and it has to do more to try solve the crisis. In the Middle East and elsewhere, Obama does not want another war with a Muslim country, even if he is cheered on by Arab leaders in the region who want Iran's program destroyed. He fears a backlash by Muslims in the street, the prospect of increased terror against the United States, the possibility of delaying rather than destroying Iran's program and the chance of being forced to use ground troops that could get mired in another long war. He also fears that war will cause a spike in oil prices that will doom his program for economic recovery. If Obama does not attack Iran and Israel feels forced to defend itself from what it sees as an existential threat, the US may face many of the same consequences. Much, of course, depends on the success of any operation, but Obama officials have been warning for months of the potential negative repercussions for US interests of a unilateral Israeli attack. On a broader scale, Obama has to develop a vision for future relations with the Arab world. His first term policy was neither idealist nor realist; he had no ideology or world view shaping his policies and made ad hoc decisions to address each crisis. In his second term, he will need to decide if he supports democracy for the region. If so, he will have to distinguish between democratic processes, such as elections, and democratic outcomes that lead to freedom for Arab citizens and the protection of their human rights. And from now on, he can expect more 'harrowing' moment in managing US foreign policy.   |
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