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China, India and MH370

Posted: 22 Mar 2014 09:15 PM PDT

A senior Indian official said: "The A&N (Andaman and Nicobar) command is our military outpost in the region, which overlooks the Malacca Strait and dominates the Six-Degree Channel. We don't want Chinese warships sniffing around in the area on the pretext of hunting for the missing jetliner or anti-piracy patrols."

For that reason, India has turned down a Chinese request seeking consent for four of its warships to search for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane near India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands.


China had on Thursday sought consent for four of its warships — including two frigates — to enter the Indian waters. Indian officials said the request had been "politely turned down", adding that Indian warships and aircraft were already searching the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

The Indian Navy already has four warships deployed in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea in continuation of the search for the jetliner. Extensive air searches are also being conducted with three aircraft in the area.

The two Asian giants are neighbors and both are wary of each others' military capabilities. The islands house an important Indian military outpost, where the country's only tri-services command is located.

The search for Flight MH370 also saw Vietnam denying entry for all participating ships and aircraft from neighboring countries to its airspace and waters.

While China has asserted full claim on the South China Sea - that provoked diplomatic uneasiness among countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia - India has firmly puts Andaman and Nicobar under its control.

The askance in India-China relationship is still thick despite both enjoying hefty returns from bilateral economic ties.

China's current defense budget is US$132 billion - even that does not reflect the true scale of its defense spending, including R&D. Adding all expenditures, it is really in the region of $160 billion. This gap is opening serious windows of vulnerability.

New Delhi was hoping to speed up critical arms acquisition projects. Although they may not be able to match China dollar for dollar but a safe proportionality has to be maintained, and this is why there is an urgent need for deeper strategic cooperation between India, Japan and Vietnam.

To India, its 'pay back time' by refusing to let China's ships in Andaman Sea.

The aim is to deter China from any kind of adventurism. In 2008 they were following a cautious policy of  'hide your abilities - bide your time'. But, in 2009 there was an abrupt and significant change.

China's military felt that, with DF- 21D Missiles, it had the answer to the US Carrier Battle Groups, and its anti-access strategy became workable. Since then, China has turned very aggressive against all Asian neighbors - including Southeast Asian nations, Japan, Vietnam and India in particular.

India's Agni-V is not such 'a dwarf' as described by China; it puts Beijing in range and the Chinese know that well. It is time for India to pay China back with the same coin for its highly provocative support of the rouge state of Pakistan.

For this, India feels the need to pull out all stops and cooperate closely with Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia.

India has the advantage of buying the best technology from both the East and the West. What they need is to speed up arms acquisition drive. In the meantime the military math dictates the need for a solid India-Japan-Vietnam combination to check China's uncalled for aggression.

China today has 913 fourth-generation fighters. India has some 322 and Japan 277. The logic of cooperation is in the numbers. At the very least it will complicate Chinese decision making and tie down resources - disabling China from focusing on any one neighbor.

The biggest danger comes from China's water hegemony and, for India, its efforts to divert the waters of the Tibetan rivers.

Passengers' families could collect millions in damages

Posted: 22 Mar 2014 03:43 AM PDT

It will be a headache for the government and national carrier Malaysia Airlines. After incurring RM1.2 billion in losses last year, MAS is expected to face legal lawsuit from families of the missing MH370 passengers.

MAS was already feeling the heat building up but of course, Putrajaya will not let its GLC succumb to such a situation as nobody had expected it to happen. It was fated!

Not knowing the fate of the 239 people aboard the Boeing 777 complicates the claims process and presents some significant hurdles.

Dan Rose, a partner at the firm Kreindler & Kreindler who has represented passenger claims, however said it will in no way absolve the airline's financial responsibilities to the passengers' families.

"From a legal point of view, it's not an unprecedented situation," he said.

Under an international treaty known as the Montreal Convention, the airline must pay relatives of each deceased passenger an initial sum of around $150,000 to $175,000. Relatives of victims can also sue for further damages - unless the airline can prove that it took all necessary measures to prevent a crash or any other incident that prevented passengers from arriving safely.

"It's going to be extremely difficult for Malaysia Airlines to plead absence of negligence" when the plane is missing, said Brian Havel, a law professor and director of the International Aviation Law Institute at DePaul University. "The negligence may have even begun in the process of accepting stolen passports."

Liability could also stretch beyond the airline to the plane's manufacturer, Boeing, if a mechanical flaw is ruled the cause. But that would be a difficult case to prove if the plane is not recovered.

Monica Kelly, an attorney at Ribbeck Law Chartered who plans to file suit against Malaysia Airlines and Boeing, believes that based on her experience, families could receive between $400,000 and $3 million in damages. However, it could take two years before they see the money, she said.

And a lot depends on where the lawsuits are filed. Plaintiffs tend to be awarded much larger sums in US courts than in other countries, said Mike Danko, an aviation lawyer with Danko Meredith who estimates some awards could be as large as $6 million to $8 million.

Uncertainty about the passengers' fate could slow the legal process. But if months go by with no sign of the passengers, most countries will allow judges to rule that a passenger is presumed dead, allowing claims to move forward, including life insurance and other other end-of-life matters.

Any lawsuits will likely unfold in several countries since people of 14 different nationalities were on board the flight. U.S. attorneys are already on the ground in Beijing, where many of the families are awaiting news of their loved ones in a hotel.

But most claims will likely be settled out of court.

Many of Malaysia Airlines' expenses will be covered by the maze of insurance policies that cover a plane and its passengers. Coverage averages between $2 billion and $2.5 billion per aircraft, including about $10 million per passenger, Havel said.

The first claims for the missing airliner itself have already been paid. Insurer Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty said Wednesday it and other firms "have made initial payments" of an unspecified amount on so-called hull and liability policies that are part of "our contractual obligations where an aircraft is reported as missing."

An eventual payout from the airline, however, won't answer the many questions or assuage the grief. Families of the passengers gathered in Kuala Lumpur and Beijing -- the flight's departure and intended arrival cities -- upset that, in their view, authorities were withholding information.
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